help button home button JAMIA Hate scrolling?
HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH
First published October 12, 2005 as JAMIA PrePrint; doi:10.1197/jamia.M1913
Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 2006;13(1):106-112
© 2006 American Medical Informatics Association

A more recent version of this article appeared on January 1, 2006
This Article
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Data Supplement
Right arrow All Versions of this Article:
M1913v1
13/1/106    most recent
Right arrow Submit a response
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me when eLetters are posted
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow reprints & permissions
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Ford, E. W.
Right arrow Articles by Phillips, M. T.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Ford, E. W.
Right arrow Articles by Phillips, M. T.

Submitted on July 18, 2005
Accepted on September 13, 2005

Predicting the Adoption of Electronic Health Records by Physicians: When will Health Care be Paperless?

Eric W. Ford PhD, MPH1*, Nir Menachemi PhD, MPH2, and M. Thad Phillips MSHA, MSHI, MBA1

Affiliation of the authors: 1 Department of Health Systems Management, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA; 2 Center on Patient Safety, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

Objectives The purpose of this study is threefold. First, we gather and synthesize the historic literature regarding electronic health record (EHR) adoption rates among physicians in small practices (10 or less members). Next, we construct models to project estimated future EHR adoption trends and timelines. Finally, we discuss the likelihood of achieving universal EHR adoption in the near future and articulate how barriers can be overcome in the small and solo practice medical environment.

Design This study utilizes EHR adoption data from six previous surveys of small practices to estimate historic market penetration rates. Applying technology diffusion theory, three future adoption scenarios - optimistic, `best estimate', and conservative - are empirically derived.

Measurement EHR adoption parameters - external and internal coefficients of influence - are estimated using Bass diffusion models.

Results All three EHR scenarios display the characteristic diffusion S-curve that is indicative that the technology is likely to achieve significant market penetration, given enough time. Under current conditions, EHR adoption will reach its maximum market share in 2024 in the small practice setting.

Conclusions The promise of improved care quality and cost control has prompted a call for universal EHR adoption by 2014. The EHR products now available are unlikely to achieve full diffusion in a critical market segment within the timeframe being targeted by policymakers.




This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 Med Decis MakingHome page
S. Pakhomov, S. Bjornsen, P. Hanson, and S. Smith
Quality Performance Measurement Using the Text of Electronic Medical Records
Med Decis Making, July 1, 2008; 28(4): 462 - 470.
[Abstract] [PDF]

Home page
 J. Am. Med. Inform. Assoc.Home page
P. F. Brennan
Standing in the shadows of theory.
J. Am. Med. Inform. Assoc., March 1, 2008; 15(2): 263 - 264.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J. Am. Med. Inform. Assoc.Home page
S. V.S. Pakhomov, P. L. Hanson, S. S. Bjornsen, and S. A. Smith
Automatic Classification of Foot Examination Findings Using Clinical Notes and Machine Learning
J. Am. Med. Inform. Assoc., March 1, 2008; 15(2): 198 - 202.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 American Journal of Medical QualityHome page
N. Menachemi, E. W. Ford, L. M. Beitsch, and R. G. Brooks
Incomplete EHR Adoption: Late Uptake of Patient Safety and Cost Control Functions
American Journal of Medical Quality, October 1, 2007; 22(5): 319 - 326.
[Abstract] [PDF]


HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH
Copyright © 1994 by the American Medical Informatics Association.